The global production capacity of semiconductor chips is on a wave of demand and a really worrisome supply shortfall. There is no company or sector that is saved from the voracious demand and as such, the rebound effect is taking place in the RAM memories and, seen what has been seen with the Chia cryptocurrency, it is not ruled out that the SSDs will go down a similar path.
Growth rates uncertain, but above double digits
The latest reports are really worrying for companies and users, since in the middle of the COVID crisis where its effects on the economy are being seen now and in the remainder of the year, the RAM memory industry led by Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron It is in the middle of a price scale war.
The data for the second quarter of this year that we now know is disturbing: the price of RAM increased by 20%. But as we have commented, the industry does not intend to stop there, since they have concluded that escalation is inevitable and that the price growth rate will be, at least, above double digits.
That is to say and in other words, that the minimum price that the chips could have is 10% higher. Rumors and speculations have already been triggered by the main agencies and they go precisely from that 10% to another jump of 20%, or what is the same, that would be equivalent to a 40% increase in the price in just six months.
Are we going back to 2017/2018 with uncontrolled and unreal prices where the price literally doubled?
The price increase can get out of control
The biggest problem is the high demand and the null supply, where there are already analysts who are screaming in the sky because the forecasts according to their data are chilling. The worst forecasts are not even illuminating, as they refer to the rise as an uncontrolled rise in prices.
What exactly does that mean? Nobody is sure, but what we can be sure of is the statements of Micron’s CEO: Sanjav Mehrotra, where in a conference he said the following:
Under strong demand and limited supply, the current DRAM market faces a severe supply shortage, which has led to a surge in DRAM prices, and will tighten further throughout the year.
Nothing specific, but it is a warning to sailors. Ladies, gentlemen, tighten your belts because really big turbulences are coming and the sector is going through a crisis that does not seem to end until the end of next year, really a debacle that those who have to buy are going to be fatal.
The only positive is that the average user will go to the second-hand market, but companies as they are… Complicated. How high will the price of RAM go?